Tropical Storm Man-yi impact Near Tokyo

Sep 12, 2013
Man-yi was upgraded to a Tropical Storm early friday morning in between the Ogasawara islands of Japan and northern Mariana Islands. The confidence in the forecast track today has also grown. Over the past 48hrs we have been debating on two possible scenarios, one a recurving storm the other it stalling out near Kyushu and drifting west.

Today it looks like the quick recurving of this storm as it gets picked up by a deep trough out of Mongolia will be the cast. This trough is a rather potent one and is being forced south by a intense migratory high that is event causing below freezing temperatures across Mongolia and North East China. This trough will act as a fish hook on Man-yi pulling it quickly north along the pacific coast of Honshu. A landfall is still possible south of Tokyo though. If one was to occur at this time it would seem most likely to be around the Honto Pennisula or Chiba Prefecture.

Tokyo will see Tropical Storm winds and heavy rainfall throughout the night on Sunday in to Monday morning. The worst of the weather will likely be during the early morning hours on Monday. I would say just prior to the morning rush hour but thankfully this storm will be skirting the coast on a Japanese Holiday. Many business will be closed any ways ahead of the storm.